Investment Ideas

Prominent European banks like BNP Paribas, ING Groep, and Unicredit are trading at attractive valuations and offer generous dividend yields. Julius Baer has put an interesting one-year structured product into subscription that offers exposure to the aforementioned three stocks and capital protection.

While much of the market’s attention has been focused on US financials over the past decade, European banks are now ready to take centre stage. They are not only trading at cheaper valuations but also offer generous dividend yields. Furthermore, technically, the Stoxx Europe 600 Banks Index appears to be breaking out of a 15-year base, and earnings expectations are optimistic. Thus, the prospects for European banks are bright.

Three of the most prominent European banks are BNP Paribas, ING Groep, and Unicredit. All three are currently trading at attractive valuations, despite having reported robust profits for the fourth quarter of 2024.

BNP Paribas boasts a well-diversified business portfolio across attractive markets. Its credible dividend and earnings-per-share growth potential is underpinned by revenue initiatives and a comprehensive cost-savings programme.

ING Groep possesses a solid balance sheet that is characterised by continued improvements in loan loss reserves and a robust equity tier-1 ratio. The group has recently announced plans to distribute excess capital through special dividends and share buy-backs.

Unicredit has improved its earnings visibility following rigorous cost-cutting measures and a comprehensive restructuring programme in recent years. The company’s medium-term strategic objectives prioritise growth and value creation for shareholders.

For more risk-averse investors seeking yield and wanting to lock in returns, we have put an interesting one-year structured product into subscription that offers exposure to the aforementioned three stocks. Besides an attractive guaranteed coupon, the downside risk is reduced by a quarterly lock-in feature that can convert the structure into a 100%-capital-protected product.

For further information about this product click here:

Product Details CHF

Product Details EUR

Product Details USD

IMPRINT

This content constitutes marketing material and is not the result of independent financial/investment research. It has been produced by Bank Julius Baer & Co. Ltd., Zurich, which is authorised and regulated by the Swiss Financial Market Supervisory Authority FINMA.

This content is intended for information purposes only and does not constitute advice, an offer or an invitation by, or on behalf of, Julius Baer to buy or sell any securities, securities-based derivatives or other products or to participate in any particular trading strategy in any jurisdiction.

Julius Baer does not accept liability for any loss arising from the use of this document.

This content may include figures relating to simulated past performance. Past performance, simulations and performance forecasts are not reliable indicators of future results.

For further details about risks and suitability, as well as important legal information, please consult the following link: IMPORTANT LEGAL INFORMATION

After Trump’s win, our analysts expect higher growth, higher inflation and higher yields. For investors seeking a higher yield than what US Treasuries currently offer, a reverse on the 10-year US Treasury bond may be attractive.

"The US Treasury market has recently experienced height¬ened uncertainty. Initially, Treasury bond yields fell ahead of the start of the US Federal Reserve’s rate-cutting cycle, but they have surged since September in anticipation of a ‘Trump sweep’. Indeed, with Donald Trump becoming the next US president, our analysts expect higher growth, higher inflation, and higher yields. For investors sharing this fundamental outlook and seeking a higher yield than what US Treasuries currently offer, a reverse convertible on the 10-year US Treasury bond may be worth considering.

With this fundamental background in mind, our econo¬mists expect an increase in 10-year US Treasury yields in 3 months and in 12 months. At the same time, the US Federal Reserve is expected to continue on its rate-cut¬ting path, especially since the Trump administration is likely to challenge high interest rates.

In this environment, our structured-product experts have put a reverse convertible on the 10-year US Treasury bond in subscription. This product offers an attractive yield pick-up compared to the underlying 10-year US Treasury bond and a small margin of safety via the strike yield, which is above our expectation for the 10-year US Treasury yield in 12 months’ time. At maturity, if the underlying’s yield remains below the strike yield, investors will receive the initial capital and benefit from a shorter duration compared to holding the underlying bond directly. Alternatively, if the underlying’s yield is above the strike yield and the investor receives physical delivery of the underlying 10-year US Treasury bond, the investor’s port¬folio will be enhanced with a stable income security of the highest quality that could act as a valuable hedge against potential economic downturns. "

For further information about this product click here.

IMPRINT

This content constitutes marketing material and is not the result of independent financial/investment research. It has been produced by Bank Julius Baer & Co. Ltd., Zurich, which is authorised and regulated by the Swiss Financial Market Supervisory Authority FINMA.

This content is intended for information purposes only and does not constitute advice, an offer or an invitation by, or on behalf of, Julius Baer to buy or sell any securities, securities-based derivatives or other products or to participate in any particular trading strategy in any jurisdiction.

Julius Baer does not accept liability for any loss arising from the use of this document.

This content may include figures relating to simulated past performance. Past performance, simulations and performance forecasts are not reliable indicators of future results.

For further details about risks and suitability, as well as important legal information, please consult the following link: IMPORTANT LEGAL INFORMATION

Losing its lustre

Few sectors enjoy greater attention than the automotive industry. That is particularly true in Germany, home to global marques such as BMW, Mercedes, Volkswagen and Audi. The sector can look back on decades of success stretching as far back as the postwar period, when the type 1 Volkswagen, the VW Beetle, first rolled off the production lines in 1945. The car quickly became the most important of status symbols and an accelerator of economic growth. Today the motor sector is still the most significant branch of the economy in Germany by far – not only the largest segment of the manufacturing industry, but also one of its biggest employers. Nevertheless, that reputation is now at risk: a series of deeply concerning reports of profit warnings, job losses and factory closures, among others, have been doing the rounds just recently.

Lots of roadworks

VW set the ball rolling at the start of the month. With the figures for the first half, which had already come with a lower forecast for the year as a whole, revealing serious weaknesses at Europe’s large motor group, the latest statements from its management suggest the problems have become even weightier. At a works meeting, CFO Arno Antlitz shocked those in attendance by disclosing a current shortfall in sales of about 500,000 vehicles, corresponding to the output of roughly two plants. “The market simply isn’t there any more,” Antlitz said. The finance director is looking to counteract this with a tougher austerity policy, which could also entail job losses and factory closures. VW seems to be finding savings just as difficult, though: according to media reports, the “fitness programme” launched in 2023 with the aim of delivering some EURbn 10 in cost savings is still up to EURbn 5 short of the target. As a result, a dispute between the works council and management about job losses, similar to the last one in 2016 following the diesel emissions scandal, seems almost inevitable.

Pressure on margins

While weak demand, high costs and investment are threatening to put VW into the red in 2024, results are also putting premium manufacturers BMW and Mercedes-Benz under pressure. The Munich carmakers saw their pre-tax profits fall by 10.7% in the second quarter, with the key profit margin in its motor business accordingly tumbling almost one percentage point to 8.4%. The downward trend will accelerate further in the second half of the year. A few days ago, the “white and blue” marque shocked observers by issuing a profit warning. Following problems with a brake system from its supplier Continental – the additional costs are put in the high three-digit million range – and a continuing slump in the Chinese market, BMW is now expecting a decline in sales this year and a return from its motor business of just 6% to 7%. The board had previously held out the prospect of 8% to 10%.

Hope for improvement

With a profit margin of 10.2%, Mercedes-Benz may have put its competitors in the shade in the spring quarter, but it is likewise on a downward trajectory: the brand with the star had achieved a return of 13.5% the year before. However, bosses have now dismissed the possibility of reaching such heights in 2024. At the halfway point the Stuttgart company narrowed its expectations for the year as a whole from 10% to 12% down to 10% to 11%. The group expects the operating result to be “slightly” below that of the previous year, which by Mercedes’ definition corresponds to a drop of 5% to 15%. Recently the carmaker has been having to deal not only with weaker Chinese business, but also the fact that fewer models from the luxury segment, which are generally much more profitable, are being sold at the moment. Their share of total sales fell by two percentage points to 14% in the second quarter. Group CEOr Ola Källenius expects to see an upturn here, however: “Sales and the model mix are expected to improve in the second half of the year, supported by further market launches of new models, particularly in the top-end segment.” The petrol version of the pepped-up V-class and a hybridised variant of the Mercedes-AMG GLE 53 will be launched on the market, for instance.

Graph: Revenue of the automotive sector

Source: BMW, Mercedes-Benz, VW

German car trio:

Buffered ride with bonus certificates

Sales dip

That Germany’s key industry has been on a bumpy path for some considerable time already is clear from the capital markets. The shares of BMW, Mercedes-Benz and VW have suffered double-digit percentage losses over the last year, a much worse performance than that of the DAX, which advanced by almost a fifth over the same period. The downward trend is being accompanied by sluggish sales and declining profitability. Looking at the German market as a whole, there is no improvement in sight: it shrank by 27.8% in August compared with the same month the previous year. New registrations of electric cars have fallen at an even faster rate, with 68.8% fewer customers opting for the eco-friendly option across all makes in that summer month. Industry association the VDA has already revised down its sales target for 2024 and expects a 17% drop in new registrations. The picture on the important Chinese market is currently rather cloudy: while the graph for combustion vehicles is also heading downwards, sales of electric cars – boosted by subsidies – are rising strongly. In August sales of vehicles with alternative drive technology (known as new energy vehicles, or NEVs) climbed 43.2%, accounting for a record 53.5% share of total sales. This did not change the fact, though, that the market as a whole declined for the fifth month in a row. Given the ongoing tailwinds provided by government incentives, however, experts believe that sales will finish 2024 in positive territory. S&P Global, too, believes that more vehicles will be delivered worldwide. The analysts anticipate growth of 1% to 3% this year and reckon that 2025 will see the global car market accelerate slightly to 2% to 4%.

Thumbs up

A recovery in the market would also play into the hands of the German trio, assuming the groups get a grip on their home-grown problems. However, the valuations of the companies are now at such a low level that the bulk of the bad news may have already been priced in gradually. The BMW and Mercedes-Benz shares are currently trading at a 2026 PER of just 4, while the figure for VW is just 2.5. It is not surprising, therefore, that the consensus among analysts is to see upside potential despite the atmosphere of crisis. While there could, admittedly, still be downward revisions as a result of recent events, the current average price targets are so high that individual downgrades should not carry too much weight. BMW shares currently enjoy a “hold” rating and have an average price target of EUR 90, a premium of around one fifth on the price now. The majority still rate Mercedes-Benz and VW as “buy”, each at a fair value of 40% above the current price level.

Enjoying the ride with no speed limit

Should the three car shares be able to get out of crisis mode again, their recent considerable underperformance could make a strong U-turn a distinct possibility. It is, of course, extremely difficult to get the timing of this exactly right. What is more, the pessimistic underlying mood mean that further setbacks cannot be excluded. Bonus certificates are the perfect investment solution for this situation, which is why Leonteq has launched two new instruments denominated in CHF and EUR on BMW, Mercedes-Benz and VW. On the upside, the products offer full participation in price rises of the equally weighted basket of shares. On the downside, the structure has a comfortable safety buffer. Investors thus participate 100% in increases in the trio’s share price – and without any limit, because there is no cap. That allows the full price potential of the car securities to be utilised. For the case that one of the three underlyings heads south, the barrier comes into play. It is a comfortable 45% from the starting prices. Should the shares end the three-year term in negative territory, then, but the barrier remain intact, holders of the certificate need not fear any losses. By contrast, at least the bonus level of 130% in the CHF variant and 139% in the EUR variant will be paid out.

Risk of a barrier breach

If the downward movement of at least one stock gets too fast, however, so that it touches or breaks through the barrier level, the attractive bonus mechanism switches off. The weakest of the trio on final fixing will then prevail, and its performance will determine the repayment. To give an example, if the worst performer falls 5%, the repayment will be reduced to CHF 950 or EUR 950 respectively. This would equate to a loss of 5% on the nominal. Assuming that the securities recover after breaching the barrier, however, so that the weakest member finishes 5% in positive territory, the repayment would be 105%, or CHF 1,050 and EUR1,050 respectively. This example shows that a possible breach of the barrier need not necessarily result in a loss.

Chart: BMW vs. Mercedes-Benz vs. VW (3 years)

Multi Bonus Certificate

ABBITQ - CH1381827158

ABBYTQ - CH1381827182

Legal Disclaimer

This document constitutes Advertising within the meaning of article 68 of the FinSA.

This publication serves only for information purposes and is not research; it constitutes neither a recommendation for the purchase of financial instruments nor an offer or an invitation for an offer. No responsibility is taken for the correctness of this information. Investors bear the full credit risk of the issuer / [guarantor] for products which are not issued as COSI® products. Before investing in derivative instruments, investors are highly recommended to ask their financial advisor for advice specifically focused on the investor´s financial situation; the information contained in this document does not substitute such advice.

This publication does not constitute a simplified prospectus pursuant to art. 5 CISA, or a listing prospectus pursuant to art. 652a or 1156 of the Swiss Code of Obligations. The relevant product documentation can be obtained directly at Leonteq Securities AG via telephone +41 (0)58 800 1111, fax +41 (0)58 800 1010, or via email termsheet@leonteq.com.

Selling restrictions apply for the EEA, Hong Kong, Singapore,the USA, US persons, and the United Kingdom (the issuance is subject to Swiss law).

The Underlying’s performance in the past does not constitute a guarantee for their future performance. The financial products' value is subject to market fluctuation, which can lead to a partial or total loss of the invested capital. The purchase of the financial products triggers costs and fees. Leonteq Securities AG and/or another related company may operate as market maker for the financial products, may trade as principal, and may conclude hedging transactions. Such activity may influence the market price, the price movement, or the liquidity of the financial products.

Insofar as this publication contains information relating to a Packaged Retail and Insurance-based Investment Product (PRIIP), a Key Information Document in accordance with Regulation (EU) No 1286/2014 (PRIIPs Regulation) is available at https://www.priipkidportal.com/

Any - including only partial - reproduction of any article or picture is solely permitted based on an authorization from Leonteq Securities AG. No responsibility is assumed in case of unsolicited delivery.

© Leonteq Securities AG 2023. All rights reserved.

With the introduction of its new tracker certificate, Julius Baer is applying a well-established strategy that combines SMI exposure with a systematic call option overlay. In sideways and falling markets, this strategy can outperform the SMI, providing robustness when it is needed from a portfolio perspective.

Long-term exposure to Swiss equities is currently attractive to many investors due to defensive qualities and the presence of industry-leading companies on the Swiss equity market. The long-term strength of the CHF provides an additional incentive for investors to have Swiss equities as a strategic building block. History has shown that adopting a long-term investment approach tends to outperform excessive market-timing attempts – a principle that also applies to investing in Swiss equities.

For investors wishing to increase their long-term exposure to Swiss equities, Julius Baer is introducing a well-established strategy typically only available to institutional clients and linked to the Swiss Market Index (SMI). Designed for investors seeking returns comparable to the SMI but with lower expected drawdowns, this strategy combines an SMI exposure with a systematic call option overlay. This overlay is expected to generate additional income by selling call options on the SMI and also provide a certain buffer against drawdowns. In sideways and falling markets, this strategy can outperform the SMI, providing robustness when it is needed from a portfolio perspective.

As the global market landscape continues to evolve, Julius Baer remains confident in the attractiveness of Swiss equities. With the launch of this innovative SMI-linked strategy, investors can now benefit from the potential of Swiss equities with enhanced risk management and an attractive steady income component.

For further information about this product click here.

IMPRINT

This content constitutes marketing material and is not the result of independent financial/investment research. It has been produced by Bank Julius Baer & Co. Ltd., Zurich, which is authorised and regulated by the Swiss Financial Market Supervisory Authority FINMA.

This content is intended for information purposes only and does not constitute advice, an offer or an invitation by, or on behalf of, Julius Baer to buy or sell any securities, securities-based derivatives or other products or to participate in any particular trading strategy in any jurisdiction.

Julius Baer does not accept liability for any loss arising from the use of this document.

This content may include figures relating to simulated past performance. Past performance, simulations and performance forecasts are not reliable indicators of future results.

For further details about risks and suitability, as well as important legal information, please consult the following link: IMPORTANT LEGAL INFORMATION

The number of people aged 60 and over worldwide is expected to double from 1 billion in 2020 to over 2 billion in 2050. The importance of age-related therapies, services, and products is therefore becoming increasingly relevant. From an investment perspective, the current landscape provides a compelling case for allocating capital to the overarching theme of an ageing population.

The world’s populations are now living longer. Furthermore, according to a recent Lancet study, declining birth rates mean that by 2050 the number of births will not be sufficient to sustain population sizes. With increasingly higher proportions of populations entering their 60s and 70s, it is little wonder that our Next Generation analysts believe that the prospects are bright for the Extended Longevity theme (which spans healthcare, elderly care, and beauty, as well as nutritional and financial planning) and the long-term investment prospects of the key players associated with it.

Given this backdrop, and the fact that valuations remain attractive compared to historical averages, we have put an interesting 18-month structured product into subscription. The product offers exposure to four stocks: Alcon (the global leader in eye care – both in terms of sales and its technology platform), Eli Lilly (one of the two leaders for novel diabetes and obesity treatments – segments that are set to grow by 8% and 30% p.a., respectively, by the end of the decade), Swiss Life (the largest life insurance company

in Switzerland, with a leading market share in the individual life and group pensions businesses), and L’Oréal SA (whose strong and diversified brand portfolio makes it the industry leader in terms of margins and organic growth).

Besides an attractive guaranteed coupon of 10.5% (USD), 8.85%(EUR), and 6.8% (CHF) p.a., the downside risk is reduced by the lock-in feature, which can convert the product into a 100% capital-protected product on a monthly basis. The low knock-in barrier of 55%, which is observed continuously, offers an additional layer of downside risk mitigation.

For further information about this product, click here:

to CHF product

to EUR product

to USD product

IMPRINT

This content constitutes marketing material and is not the result of independent financial/investment research. It has been produced by Bank Julius Baer & Co. Ltd., Zurich, which is authorised and regulated by the Swiss Financial Market Supervisory Authority FINMA.

This content is intended for information purposes only and does not constitute advice, an offer or an invitation by, or on behalf of, Julius Baer to buy or sell any securities, securities-based derivatives or other products or to participate in any particular trading strategy in any jurisdiction.

Julius Baer does not accept liability for any loss arising from the use of this document.

This content may include figures relating to simulated past performance. Past performance, simulations and performance forecasts are not reliable indicators of future results.

For further details about risks and suitability, as well as important legal information, please consult the following link: IMPORTANT LEGAL INFORMATION