Learning through play
Running, table tennis, boxing and games of skill – the list of contests pitting humans against machines is getting ever longer. Not long ago a two-legged robot of the Chinese company Unitree set a new record among humanoids with a speed of about 3.3 m/s. True, that’s not a patch on how fast a human can go, but the rate of development is startling, given that “H1” only managed 1.5 m/s in December. Meanwhile, scientists at ETH Zurich have developed “CyberRunner”, a robot that can solve a marble maze game using artificial intelligence (AI). After a couple of hours of training, at the end of last year it was able to beat an “extremely capable human player” by 6% with 55 control instructions. All this “fun and games”, though, has a serious point: whether in industry, healthcare or the home, robots are set to not only assist humans, but in some cases also replace them over the next few years.
Billion-dollar market ...
A glance at the growth in robots reveals that the aforementioned “reorganisation of society” is proceeding at pace. According to the World Robotics Report, a total of 553,052 new industrial robots were installed across the world in 2022 – equivalent to a growth rate of 5% year on year. Broken down by region, almost three quarters of the new humanoids came onto the market in Asia, with Europe accounting for a 15% share of the market and everywhere else one tenth. This growth will continue, with the International Federation of Robotics (IFR) predicting that the number of industrial robots installed annually will climb to 718,000 by 2026. China is among those putting its foot especially hard on the gas: at the end of 2023, Beijing presented a plan under which humanoid robots will have reached such a stage of maturity by 2025 that they can go into mass production.
… with dynamic growth
The electronic assistants in healthcare are likewise very much in demand. Market researcher Apollo Research Reports puts the market value of medical robots in 2022 at around USDbn 18.1 and anticipates that it will rise by an average 16.6% a year to reach USDbn 83.1 by 2032. While doctors use four-armed surgical machines to guide scalpels around patients with millimetre precision and thus achieve better clinical results, AI can also be used to develop drugs faster and make more accurate diagnoses. The experts of US bank Morgan Stanley reckon that the use of AI in this sector could play a key role in accelerating research and development and lead to an additional 50 new treatments in the next ten years with a sales potential of more than 50.
Industry 4.0 as the driving force
While robots may be finding their way into many areas of life throughout the world, and even private homes, the great majority of humanoids will continue to be deployed in traditional industry, such as car manufacturing. As automation progresses further, however, it is not only robots – think Robot Process Automation (RPA) – that are set to take on an important role: AI comes into play here too, because artificial intelligence enables companies to manage complex tasks that would require actual human intelligence. Whether the smart factory, data analysis or customer interaction, these clever systems are increasingly becoming a vital tool in the modern business world. Connecting RPA and AI allows the two transformative technologies to be combined, unleashing even greater potential. Driven by AI, machine learning and the cloud, the experts at Fortune Business Insights expect the global market for robot-assisted process automation to jump from USDbn 13.9 2023 to USDbn 50.5 in 2030. This is equivalent to an annual growth rate of 20.3%.
Source: IFR
Digitalisation as the recipe for success:
Swissquote Robotics & Artificial Intelligence Index combines two mega-trends
Acquisitions and innovations
Many companies are looking to share in the paradigm shift brought about in the technology world by AI and robotics. Among them is Amazon, for instance. The online giant first put its faith in robot technology with the purchase of Kiva Systems back in 2012. Amazon, however, would like not only to automate its own business, but also provide its customers with digital assistants. To that end the group recently sought to acquire robot vacuum cleaner manufacturer iRobot, but could not get over the regulatory hurdles. It remains to be seen which target Amazon will look to acquire next in this segment. ABB, the world’s second largest manufacturer of industrial robots, has already found a candidate: a few weeks ago the group acquired AI firm Sevensense with a view to equipping its entire mobile robot fleet with artificial intelligence in order to drive future growth. In the medical robot sector, Intuitive Surgical is currently the focus of attention. Recently the company submitted an application to the US health authorities, the FDA, for approval for the next generation of its world-famous “da Vinci” robot system. The four-armed surgical machine is said to have “hundreds” of design changes and 10,000 times the computing power.
Booming chip market
Robot manufacturers are not the only ones profiting from the digital mega-trends, though, with suppliers, too – particularly in the chip sector – enjoying a boom in business. A prime example of this is Nvidia, the US semiconductor group, which in February reached a market capitalisation of more than USDtn 2 for the first time. Nvidia is regarded as a major beneficiary in the AI sector for good reason: with its high-performance chips, the Californian company controls around 80% of the global market. Its customer base includes well-known names such as Microsoft, Meta Platforms and even ChatGPT developer OpenAI. One competitor that Nvidia needs to take seriously is AMD. At the turn of the year the group positioned itself in the race for the USD 400bn AI chip market with the launch of new products. According to the company’s press release, the processors are “the most advanced AI accelerators in the industry”. The MI300X alone is expected to bring in revenue of USDbn 0.5 by the middle of the year. Over the year as a whole, sales of AI special chips are set to exceed the USDbn 2 mark by some distance.
Considerable track record
The booming prospects for robots and artificial intelligence have led to a sharp rise in the share prices of many protagonists in the industries. Over the last year ABB’s share has climbed 37% in value, that of Intuitive Surgical by almost two thirds, while AMD and Nvidia stock has more than doubled and tripled respectively. The positive trend is also clearly reflected in the Swissquote Robotics & Artificial Intelligence Index, the broadly diversified benchmark having appreciated by rather more than a fifth over the last twelve months. The index includes a total of 30 companies – including the stocks mentioned in this text – from the promising sectors. In terms of region, companies from the USA lead the way. At the moment the total 23 stocks from elsewhere make up 64% of the barometer’s price movement. The absolute index heavyweight, however, is the Japanese Obic, which accounts for a 6% share. There are another 3 stocks from the Far East in the selection alongside the software group, including Fanuc, the world’s largest robot manufacturer. In August 2023 the company passed the record mark of 1 million industrial robots delivered in total.
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